16.01.2023/ In the year 2022, Poland entered a phase of economic downturn influenced by the global supply shock, strengthened by the consequences of Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine.
In the second quarter of 2022, GDP was still growing at a high level of 5.8% year to year. However, it was markedly lower than the growth rate observed in the first quarter of 2022 (8.6%) due to the decline in inventories and slowdown in consumer demand growth. The downturn is also confirmed by the Statistics Poland flash estimate of GDP for the third quarter of 2022, which stood at 3.5%.
Under the impact of the global supply shock, growth in consumer prices in Poland, as in other economies around the world, has risen significantly, reaching the highest levels for many years in recent months. In September 2022 the CPI index for Poland stood at 17.2% year to year and 17.9% in October 2022.
High inflation is primarily the result of the sharp rise in energy and food prices – largely due to the energy crisis, which at the beginning of 2022 has driven up prices of oil, natural gas, coal and electricity in the whole of Europe to levels not previously seen.
In the coming months of 2023 the economic conditions will remain influenced by the strong negative supply shock, reflected in rapid price growth of many commodities and goods and services. The marked slowdown abroad, particularly in the German economy, will also have a negative impact on economic activity in Poland.
The future economic situation and CPI inflation path in Poland are largely dependent on the scale of disruptions in the global economy triggered by Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine. In the case of inflation, the future antiinflation policy of central banks and governments is also a significant source of risk.
Source: The National Bank of Poland (NBP)